Draft:Staged tree

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A staged tree is a probabilistic model for a process consisting of a sequence of discrete valued events described by a tree diagram (also known as an event tree or probability tree). A staged tree places equality relationships on the conditional probability distributions of an event tree. These equality relationships are represented visually by the colour of the vertices. A staged tree also has a more compact visual representation called the chain event graph.

Staged trees and chain event graphs were originally developed as a tool for expert elicitation.^[1] People often understand things through stories and experts commonly explain their domain via sequences of events and their knock-on effects.^[2] The staged tree and chain event graph provide a visual representation of such sequences of events and relate this to a class of probability distributions to create a formal probabilistic model. When there is sufficient data, staged trees can instead be used as a machine learning tool to find the story that best describes the data. In this way, new explanations for the evolution of the process can be discovered.