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Calentamientu global

Esti artículu trata sobre l'actual calentamientu del sistema climáticu de la Tierra. "Cambéu climáticu" tamién puede referise a los enclinos climáticos de cualquier momentu de la historia xeolóxica.
Calentamientu global
fenómeno atmosférico (es) Traducir, problema medioambiental (es) Traducir y impacto humano sobre el medio ambiente (es) Traducir
riesgu esternu y cambéu climáticu
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Calentamientu global y cambéu climáticu refiérense al aumentu reparáu nos últimos sieglos de la temperatura media del sistema climáticu de la Tierra y los sos efeutos rellacionaos. Múltiples llinies de pruebes científiques amuesen que'l sistema climáticu ta caleciéndose.[1][2] Más del 90 % de la enerxía adicional llograda dende 1970 almacenóse nel sistema climáticu foi a los océanos; el restu dilió xelu y caleció los continentes y l'atmósfera.[3][nota 1] Munchos de los cambeos reparaos dende la década de 1950 nun tienen precedentes mientres décades a milenios.[4]

La comprensión científica del calentamientu global tamién foi n'aumentu. Nel so quintu informe (AR5) el Grupu Intergubernamental d'Espertos sobre'l Cambéu Climáticu (IPCC) informó en 2014 que los científicos taben más del 95 % seguros que la mayor parte del calentamientu global ye causáu poles crecientes concentraciones de gases d'efeutu ivernaderu (GEI) y otres actividaes humanes (antropoxéniques).[5][6][7] Les proyeiciones de modelos climáticos resumíos en AR5 indicaron que mientres el presente sieglu la temperatura superficial global va xubir probablemente 0,3 a 1,7 °C pal so escenariu d'emisiones más baxu usando mitigación estricta y 2,6 a 4,8 °C pal mayor.[8] Estes conclusiones fueron sofitaes poles academies nacionales de ciencia de los principales países industrializaos.[9][nota 2]

Los futuros cambeos climáticos y los impautos acomuñaos van ser distintos nuna rexón d'otra alredor del globu.[11][12] Los efeutos d'una medría nes temperatures globales inclúin una xubida nos nivel del mar y un cambéu na cantidá y los patrones de les precipitaciones, amás d'una probable espansión de los desiertos subtropicales.[13] Espérase que'l calentamientu seya mayor nel Árticu, col continuu retrocesu de los glaciares, el permafrost y la banquisa. Otros efeutos probables del calentamientu inclúin fenómenos meteorolóxicos estremos más frecuentes, tales como ola de calor, seques, agües enchentes y fuertes nevaes;[14] acidificación del océanu, y estinción d'especies por cuenta de cambiantes rexímenes de temperatura. Efeutos humanos significativos inclúin l'amenaza a la seguridá alimentaria pol amenorgamientu del rendimientu de colleches y la perdida d'hábitat por hinchente.[15][16]

Les posibles respuestes al calentamientu global inclúin la mitigación por aciu l'amenorgamientu de les emisiones, l'adautación a los sos efeutos, construcción de sistemes resilientes a los sos efeutos y una posible inxeniería climática futura. La mayoría de los países son parte de la Convención Marco de les Naciones Xuníes sobre'l Cambéu Climáticu (CMNUCC),[17] que'l so oxetivu postreru ye prevenir un cambéu climáticu antropogénico peligrosu.[18] La CMNUCC adoptaron una serie de les polítiques destinaes a amenorgar les emisiones de gases d'efeutu ivernaderu[19][20][21][22] y ayudar na adautación al calentamientu global.[19][22][23][24] Los firmantes de la CMNUCC alcordaron que se riquir grandes amenorgamientos nes emisiones[25] y que'l calentamientu global futuru tien de llindase a menos de 2,0 °C con respectu al nivel preindustrial.[25][nota 3]

  1. ↑ Hartmann, D. L.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.; Rusticucci, M. (2013). FAQ 2.1 "2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface" (PDF). IPCC WGI AR5 (Report). Evidence for a warming world comes from multiple independent climate indicators, from high up in the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. They include changes in surface, atmospheric and oceanic temperatures; glaciers; snow cover; sea ice; sea level and atmospheric water vapour. Scientists from all over the world have independently verified this evidence many times.
  2. ↑ «Myth vs Facts....». EPA (US).The U.S. Global Change Research Program, the National Academy of Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that warming of the climate system in recent decades is 'unequivocal'. This conclusion is not drawn from any one source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, including three worldwide temperature datasets showing nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other independent indicators of global warming (e.g., rising sea levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice).
  3. ↑ Rhein, M.; Rintoul, S. R. (2013). "3: Observations: Ocean" (PDF). IPCC WGI AR5 (Report). p. 257. Ocean warming dominates the global energy change inventory. Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the increase in the Earth's energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total. Melting ice (including Arctic sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers) and warming of the continents and atmosphere account for the remainder of the change in energy.
  4. ↑ IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers, Observed Changes in the Climate System, p. 2, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013. "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes labre unprecedented over decades to millennia."
  5. ↑ «CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers». IPCC. Archiváu dende l'orixinal, el 2015-02-27. Consultáu'l 7 de marzu de 2015. «The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (extremely likely: 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, more unlikely than likely 0–<50% and extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used when appropriate.»
  6. ↑ «CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers». IPCC. Consultáu'l 7 de marzu de 2015. «The evidence for human influence on the climate system has grown since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together»
  7. ↑ America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change. ISBN 0-309-14588-0.
  8. ↑ Stocker et al., Technical Summary, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013.
  9. ↑ «Joint Science Academies' Statement» (PDF). Archiváu dende l'orixinal, el 2013-09-09. Consultáu'l 6 de xineru de 2014.
  10. ↑ Kirby, Alex (17 de mayu de 2001). «Science academies back Kyoto». BBC News. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1335872.stm. Consultáu'l 27 de xunetu de 2011. 
  11. ↑ Parry, M.L., et al., «Technical summary», Box TS.6. The main projected impacts for regions, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ts.html , in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007, pp. 59–63
  12. ↑ Solomon et al., Technical Summary, [http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-5-3.html Section TS.5.3: Rexonal-Scale Projections], in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007.
  13. ↑ «Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming» (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 34 (6):  p. L06805. 2007. doi:10.1029/2006GL028443. Bibcode: 2007GeoRL..3406805L. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL028443/abstract. 
  14. ↑ On snowfall:
  15. ↑ Battisti, David (2009). «Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat». Science 323 (5911):  páxs. 240–4. doi:10.1126/science.1164363. PMID 19131626. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/323/5911/240.short. Consultáu'l 13 d'abril de 2012. 
  16. ↑ US NRC 2012, p. 31
  17. ↑ United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2011). «Status of Ratification of the Convention». UNFCCC (UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany). http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/status_of_ratification/items/2631.php. . Most countries in the world are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has adopted the 2 °C target. As of 25 November 2011, there are 195 parties (194 states and 1 rexonal economic integration organization (the European Union)) to the UNFCCC.
  18. ↑ «Article 2». The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. «The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related llegal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner», excerpt from the founding international treaty that took force on 21 March 1994.
  19. ↑ 19,0 19,1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2005). «Sixth compilation and synthesis of initial national communications from Parties not included in Annex I to the Convention. Note by the secretariat. Executive summary» (PDF). United Nations Office at Geneva (Geneva (Switzerland)). http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2005/sbi/eng/18.pdf. 
  20. ↑ Gupta, S. et al. 13.2 Climate change and other related policies Archiváu 2013-03-09 en Wayback Machine, in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007.
  21. ↑ Ch 4: Climate change and the energy outlook., in IEA 2009, pp. 173–184 (páxs.175-186 of PDF)
  22. ↑ 22,0 22,1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2011). «Compilation and synthesis of fifth national communications. Executive summary. Note by the secretariat» (PDF). United Nations Office at Geneva (Geneva (Switzerland)). http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/sbi/eng/inf01.pdf. 
  23. ↑ Adger, et al., Chapter 17: Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity, Archiváu 2018-11-03 en Wayback Machine Executive summary, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007.
  24. ↑ 6. Generating the funding needed for mitigation and adaptation (PDF), in World Bank (2010). «[http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTWDRS/EXTWDR2010/0,,contentMDK:21969137 ~menuPK:5287816~pagePK:64167689~piPK:64167673~theSitePK:5287741,00.html World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change]». The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank (Washington, D.C., USA):  páxs. 262–263. http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTWDRS/EXTWDR2010/0,,contentMDK:21969137 ~menuPK:5287816~pagePK:64167689~piPK:64167673~theSitePK:5287741,00.html. 
  25. ↑ 25,0 25,1 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2011). «Conference of the Parties – Sixteenth Session: Decision 1/CP.16: The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the work of the Ad hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (English): Paragraph 4» (PDF). UNFCCC (UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany):  p. 3. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf#page=2.  "(...) deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above preindustrial levels"
  26. ↑ (2011) America's Climate Choices, páx. 15. ISBN 978-0-309-14585-5.


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Calentamientu global

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