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Tesis Keruntuhan Utsmaniyah atau Paradigma Keruntuhan Utsmaniyah (bahasa Turki: Osmanlı Gerileme Tezi) adalah sebuah catatan sejarah[1] yang sepat memainkan peran dominan dalam kajian sejarah Kekaisaran Utsmaniyah. Menurut tesis keruntuhan tersebut, menyusul zaman keemasan yang dikaitkan dengan masa kekuasaan Sultan Suleiman yang Luar Biasa (r. 1520–1566), kekaisaran tersebut secara bertahap memasuki periode kebuntuhan dan keruntuhan secara menyeluruh yang tak dapat dipulihkan, yang berlangsung sampai pembubaran Kekaisaran Utsmaniyah pada 1923.[2] Tesis tersebut dipakai sepanjang sebagian besar abad kedua puluh sebagai dasar pemahaman Barat dan Turki Republikan[3] terhadap sejarah Utsmaniyah. Namun, pada 1978, para sejarawan mulai menguji kembali asumsi-asumsi fundamental dari tesis keruntuhan tersebut.[4]
One of the most momentous changes to have occurred in Ottoman studies since the publication of Egypt and the Fertile Crescent [1966] is the deconstruction of the so-called 'Ottoman decline thesis' – that is, the notion that toward the end of the sixteenth century, following the reign of Sultan Suleyman I (1520–66), the empire entered a lengthy decline from which it never truly recovered, despite heroic attempts at westernizing reforms in the nineteenth century. Over the last twenty years or so, as Chapter 4 will point out, historians of the Ottoman Empire have rejected the narrative of decline in favour of one of crisis and adaptation
students of Ottoman history have learned better than to discuss a "decline" which supposedly began during the reigns of Süleyman's "ineffectual" successors and then continued for centuries.
Ottomanist historians have produced several works in the last decades, revising the traditional understanding of this period from various angles, some of which were not even considered as topics of historical inquiry in the mid-twentieth century. Thanks to these works, the conventional narrative of Ottoman history – that in the late sixteenth century the Ottoman Empire entered a prolonged period of decline marked by steadily increasing military decay and institutional corruption – has been discarded.
Ottomanist historians have largely jettisoned the notion of a post-1600 'decline'
In the scholarly literature produced by Ottomanists since the mid-1970s, the hitherto prevailing view of Ottoman decline has been effectively debunked.